By Kimmo Matthews

Still finalizing their assessment of the year 2007, a period which was filled with many expectations, achievements and disappointments, opinion makers have expressed mixed views in their projections for 2008.

Some analyst are optimistic that despite many shortfalls last year, the dawn of a new year will herald new opportunities. But others say that things will remain more or less the same or worsen.

Starting from a global perspective, some analysts have suggested that based on developments internationally, indications are that the world economy is expected to continue to decline, partly as result of the slow down in the US economy. The analyst explained that with the massive US trade deficit worsening as a result of massive surpluses being generated by countries such as China, India alongside some oil producing countries, there was bound to be a negative spin-off. As a result of this, the consensus was that countries such as Jamaica would stand to come under added pressure.

Signs of this were seen in late 2007, when the government was forced to grapple with high food and commodity prices, while at the same time having to deal with a higher than originally projected fiscal deficit. The year also saw the exchange rate climb to near $71.50 during that period.

Other analysts have predicted, however, that fiscal situation will settle down, with the strong tourist winter season expected. There is also the view that the exchange rate will further stabilize.

In the business sector some analysts and business leaders are expressing confidence that with the right approach the months to come will see a number of positive developments.

Valerie Veira, chief executive officer of the Jamaica Business Development Centre (JBDC) who spoke to LIVING in an interview said the JBDC was excited about the new prospects for the New Year.

She said that the JBDC was concentrating of a number of cluster areas for this period including fashion, gifts and crafts, wellness and health and the development of micro business, as a way of reaching out to more unemployed young people.

In the political arena, after an election year some analysts have expressed uncertainty and have adopted a wait and see attitude to see how the year 2008 pans out.

Stock Market
For this year, some analysts said it was too early to predict what would happen in the equity market. Data gathered by LIVING showed that in 2007, there were more losers than winners on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE).

Data however showed that small rebounds in the final period of the year triggered some life in the equity market and has created a somewhat positive outlook for the New Year.
Poor corporate results and the emergence of alternative investment schemes which attracted thousands of Jamaicans to high-return investments, helped to divert some of the funds away from the equities market.
Also the political uncertainty which loomed over last year an election year was another factor which kept investors uncertain and away from the market for the majority of last year.
Analysts are of the view that one of the biggest areas that needed to be tackled was that of crime in Jamaica, as this was causing negative spinoff for the country and its chances for growth.

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